The company was founded by Peter Hollands and Barbara Sotowicz in 1993. Peter is the Managing Director: he has over forty years’ experience in geology, the resources business and commodities markets. Barbara Sotowicz is a Director and Company Secretary: she has a background in geology, kimberlite mineralogy and crystallography.
BME publishes a quarterly forecasting report on copper prices and the fundamentals of the market, backed up by a database of 60+ countries’ historical and forecast mine, smelter & refinery production, refined consumption, imports & exports of copper in concentrates, blister and refined, together with global market balances for each. The report is priced very keenly, at £1,000 pa (plus VAT where applicable). The database is complete but a user interface has not yet been set up for third-party sales.
BME has a very rigorous market balance methodology. Production of copper in concentrates, electrowon and secondary units are summed, then adjusted for stock change in concentrates and blister to yield refined production. Consumption is first summed by country and then adjusted for double counting (most notably where off-grade wire rod is remelted and re-cast by another company with the ‘consumption’ counted twice). The production-corrected consumption balance is then adjusted for Chinese State Reserve (SRB) purchases and increases/decreases in Chinese bonded stocks held for financial not industrial reasons. This yields a true “Industry Market Balance”.
To see a sample of this calculation, click here.
Please click here to view a sample of BME’s Quarterly Report on Copper’s Trade & Price Fundamentals.
Together with Adam Sotowicz, BME has an investment in the mathematical price modelling company Metal Price Analytics Ltd (MPA).
Over February-October 2016, MPA launched two-year-ahead forecasting models of the LME copper price and the share prices of Freeport McMoRan and Antofagasta, using monthly data.
In February 2017, MPA launched the “MPA’s Daily LME Metals Price & Spreads Report” showing for six metals brief comments, charts of modelled and actual 3M prices and cash-3M spreads, plus an oscillator showing variation in standard deviations of actual around modelled values. The report allows the reader to be clear about continuing or fading trends, range trading and upside & downside limits of the range, plus breakouts. Please click here to view a sample of this report.
MPA can create interactive forecasting versions of the daily models, on request. These would look around 20 days ahead and would provide the infrastructure for clients to enter their own 20 day forecasts of LME stocks for the individual metal, and use either their own forecasts or pre-loaded forward curve values for the models’ financial drivers: key exchange rates, 10 year notes and oil prices. The models would come with a base-case assumption for global industrial production growth, interpolated / extrapolated from monthly data, though clients would be able to vary the IP forecast.
In addition to its holding in MPA, BME also has a substantial minority stake in Roskill. Since its foundation 85 years ago, Roskill has become a leader in analysis and price forecasting for over forty industries, across minor metals, industrial minerals, glasses and ceramics, carbon and chemicals: not just at the ‘commodity’ end but also downstream: for instance in depth reports on lithium ion batteries and mineral flame retardants. It also has an events business, with the ‘Salt 2017’ conference in Cologne coming in March. Besides the big multi-client and consultancy studies that made its reputation, Roskill has now also built up a range of quarterly and biannual forecasting services: for molybdenum, vanadium, chrome, lithium and fluorspar. If clients wish it, BME / MPA would be happy to investigate price modelling of these markets.
BME and MPA’s reach is extended further by their membership of the Metal Market Alliance along with Huw Roberts and Claire Hassall (macro-economists and China experts), Cliff Green (technical analysis), David Waite & Michael Lockwood (price risk management) and Martin Haller (bauxite, alumina and aluminium). Specialists in other commodities will be joining in 2017.
Please click here to see a sample of CHR Economics’ Monthly Global Industrial Production Watch.
To see a presentation on bauxite and alumina by Martin Haller click here.
Please click here to see a publication on price risk management by Michael Lockwood and David Waite.
Contact – Peter Hollands – firstname.lastname@example.org
Copyright 2016 // Bloomsbury Minerals Economics Ltd., 97 Judd Street, London, WC1H 9JG