The company was founded by Peter Hollands and Barbara Sotowicz in 1993. Peter is the Managing Director: he has over forty years’ experience in geology, the resources business and commodities markets. Barbara Sotowicz is a Director and Company Secretary: she has a background in geology, kimberlite mineralogy and crystallography. Robert Goldstein (a former Managing Director of CRU International) is a Non-Executive Director.
BME publishes a quarterly forecasting report on copper prices and the fundamentals of the market, backed up by a database of 60+ countries’ mine, smelter & refinery production, refined consumption, imports & exports of copper concentrates, blister and refined, together with global market balances for each. The report is priced very keenly, at £1,000 pa. The database is complete but a user interface has not yet been set up for third-party sales.
BME has a very rigorous market balance methodology. Production of copper in concentrates, electrowon and secondary units are summed, then adjusted for stock change in concentrates and blister to yield refined production. Consumption is first summed by country and then adjusted for double counting (most notably where off-grade wire rod is remelted and re-cast by another company with the ‘consumption’ counted twice). The production-corrected consumption balance is then adjusted for Chinese State Reserve (SRB) purchases and increases/decreases in Chinese bonded stocks held for financial not industrial reasons. This yields a true “Industry Market Balance”.
To see a sample of this calculation, click here.
Please click here to view Sample of BME’s Quarterly Report on Copper’s Trade & Price Fundamentals.
Together with Adam Sotowicz, BME has an investment in mathematical price modelling company, Metal Price Analytics Ltd (MPA).
Over February-October 2016, MPA launched two-year-ahead forecasting models of the LME copper price and the share prices of Freeport and Antofagasta, using monthly data. The copper model currently forecasts just the 3M price, but the cash-3M spread will be added shortly. The next two-year-ahead forecasting model will be the LME nickel 3M price and cash-3M spread. If client interest is sufficient, models of the Sherritt and Eramet share prices could be set up. Potential corporate customers are welcome to request trial use of one of the copper models, or express their interest in nickel.
In November 2016, MPA launched the “MPA’s Daily LME Metals Price & Spreads Report” showing for six metals brief comments, charts of modelled ‘fair value’ and actual 3M prices and cash-3M spreads, plus an oscillator showing variation in standard deviations of actual around modelled ‘fair value’. The report allows the reader to be clear about continuing or fading trends, range trading and upside & downside limits of the range, plus breakouts. Interactive daily forecasting models may follow.
MPA can create forecasting versions of the daily models, if clients request them. These would look around 20 days ahead and would provide the infrastructure for clients to enter their own 20 day forecasts of three price drivers: LME stocks, oil prices and exchange rates. The models would come with a base-case assumption for global industrial production growth, interpolated / extrapolated from monthly data, though clients would be able to vary the IP forecast.
In addition to its holding in MPA, BME also has a substantial minority stake in Roskill. Since its foundation 85 years ago, Roskill has become a leader in analysis and price forecasting for over forty industries, across minor metals, industrial minerals, glasses and ceramics, carbon and chemicals: not just at the ‘commodity’ end but also downstream: for instance in depth reports on lithium ion batteries and mineral flame retardants. It also has an events business, with the ‘Salt 2017’ conference in Cologne coming in March. Besides the big multi-client and consultancy studies that made its reputation, Roskill has now also built up a range of quarterly and biannual forecasting services: for molybdenum, vanadium, chrome, lithium and fluorspar. If clients wish it, BME / MPA would be happy to investigate price modelling of these markets.
BME and MPA’s reach is extended further by their membership of the Metal Market Alliance along with Huw Roberts and Claire Hassall (macro-economists and China experts), Cliff Green (technical analysis), David Waite & Michael Lockwood (price risk management) and Martin Haller (bauxite, alumina and aluminium). Specialists in other commodities will be joining in 2017.
Please click here to see a sample of CHR Economics’ Monthly Global Industrial Production Watch.
To see a presentation on bauxite and alumina by Martin Haller click here.
Please click here to see a publication on price risk management by Michael Lockwood and David Waite.
Contact – Peter Hollands – firstname.lastname@example.org
Copyright 2016 // Bloomsbury Minerals Economics Ltd., 97 Judd Street, London, WC1H 9JG