The company was founded by Peter Hollands and Barbara Sotowicz in 1993. Peter is the Managing Director: he has over forty years’ experience in geology, the resources business and commodities markets. Barbara Sotowicz is a Director and Company Secretary: she has a background in geology, kimberlite mineralogy and crystallography. Robert Goldstein (a former Managing Director of CRU International) is a Non-Executive Director.
BME publishes a quarterly report on copper prices and the fundamentals of the market, backed up by a database of 60+ countries’ mine, smelter & refinery production, refined consumption, imports & exports of copper concentrates, blister and refined. The report is priced very keenly, at £1,000 pa. The database is complete but a user interface has not yet been set up for third-party sales.
BME has a very rigorous market balance methodology. Production of copper in concentrates, electrowon and secondary units are summed, then adjusted for stock change in concentrates and blister to yield refined production. Consumption is first summed by country and then adjusted for double counting (most notably where off-grade wire rod is remelted and re-cast by another company with the ‘consumption’ counted twice). The production-corrected consumption balance is then adjusted for Chinese State Reserve (SRB) purchases and increases/decreases in Chinese bonded stocks held for financial not industrial reasons. This yields a true “Industry Market Balance”.
To see a sample of this calculation, click here.
Please click here to view Sample of BME’s Quarterly Report on Copper’s Trade & Price Fundamentals.
Together with Adam Sotowicz, BME has a joint venture called Metal Price Analytics Ltd (MPA), researching the mathematics of the price behaviour of commodities (it has started with copper and zinc, but has capabilities for the other major and minor LME metals, for platinum, iron ore, rubber and more).
It has also begun modelling the price behaviour of mining equities, with Freeport McMoRan’s share price already covered by a superb model, with an r squared above 0.9. To follow will be models of the share prices of Antofagasta, Teck, Lundin, Grupo Mexico, MMG, KAZ, Boliden and others. The initial focus is miners with copper and / or zinc production, but others will follow.
Producer currencies are also being modelled. First to emerge will be the Canadian dollar v. US dollar exchange rate, to be followed by the Chilean Peso, Mexican Peso, Australian dollar – with others to be tried in due course.
Click here to see Sample of MPA’s Model-Based Monthly Report On LME 3M Copper and Copper Mining Equities
In addition to its holding in MPA, BME also has a substantial minority stake in Roskill, which covers over forty markets in industrial minerals, minor and steel alloying metals, ceramics and glasses, carbon and chemicals. If clients wish it, BME / MPA would be happy to investigate price modelling of these markets.
BME and MPA’s reach is extended further by their membership of the Metal Market Alliance along with Huw Roberts and Claire Hassall (macro-economists and China experts), Cliff Green (technical analysis), David Waite & Michael Lockwood (price risk management) and Martin Haller (bauxite, alumina and aluminium). Specialists in other commodities will be joining in 2016.
Please click here to see a sample of CHR Economics’ Monthly Global Industrial Production Watch.
To see a presentation on bauxite and alumina by Martin Haller click here.
Please click here to see a publication on price risk management by Michael Lockwood and David Waite.
Contact – Peter Hollands – firstname.lastname@example.org
Copyright 2016 // Bloomsbury Minerals Economics Ltd., 97 Judd Street, London, WC1H 9JG